At least there’s a tiny bit of suspense.
You’d be forgiven if you thought the majority of this year’s 79th annual Academy Awards were already a forgone conclusion you’d not be too far off. At this juncture, all four of the acting races appear to be over, while 2007 finally looks to be the year director Martin Scorsese takes home a directing statuette.
But Best Picture is still a category completely up for grabs. Is Babel towering above the rest? Does The Departed have the guns to shoot out a victory? Will Little Miss Sunshine smile its way into the winner’s circle? Does The Queen have the royal pedigree to pull off an upset? Or does Eastwood still make Academy voter’s day with his heartbreaking Letters from Iwo Jima?
These are all legitimate questions, and while Babel, The Departed and Little Miss Sunshine have to be considered the likely winners it goes without saying any of these five nominees have a good chance of being victorious.
But who do I think is going to win, that’s the real question I know you want answered. Even better, who does my editor and MovieFreak webmaster Dennis Landmann think is going to win, that’s the query I want the solution to. Why? Quite frankly, I want to win the bet this year, that silly upset win by Crash in 2006 ruining my perfect track record of dominance over my esteemed employer and colleague. This is the year I’m going to come back out on top, and I can smell the spoils of victory even now just scant days before this Sunday’s ceremony hosted by Ellen Degeneres.
BEST PICTURE
Babel, The Departed, Letters from Iwo Jima, Little Miss Sunshine, The Queen
Sara Michelle Fetters: This is one of the great lineups of nominees in recent memory. True, only Letters and The Queen made my own personal top ten of 2006’s best films, but in any other year it almost goes without saying each of those other three probably would have made the list. As for who will win here, I’d love to see Eastwood get it again, but as the film is in Japanese and been a relatively commercial disappointment that looks unlikely. No, this one is between the trifecta of Babel, The Departed and Little Miss Sunshine, picking the winner probably as scientific as flipping a three-sided coin. My Pick – Babel
Dennis Landmann: Letters and The Queen are out of the running straight away for me, as Eastwood won just two years for Million Dollar Baby and The Queen is a showcase (mainly) for Helen Mirren, so the remaining three films go to battle. Babel and The Departed are gaining some momentum, while Little Miss Sunshine may be rewarded by voters who prefer an indie production over films from big studios. In the end, I’m going with Scorsese twice (see Best Director), and therefore hope to beat Sara at her game. (However, if Babel should win, I’ll be satisfied as well.) My Pick – The Departed
BEST ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio – Blood Diamond, Ryan Gosling – Half Nelson, Peter O’Toole – Venus, Will Smith – The Pursuit of Happyness, Forest Whitaker – The Last King of Scotland
SM: Forest Whitaker has won just about every award there is for his terrifyingly intoxicating portrait of Ugandan dictator Idi Amin so it goes without saying he is the clear frontrunner. Still, this category isn’t completely without suspense. Peter O’Toole has a great shot for an upset, the legendary 74-year-old hoping to finally score a victory with his eighth nomination. While Gosling and Smith should be happy just getting nominated, I can’t help but wonder, however, as good as his work in Blood Diamond is, what would have happened had DiCaprio been nominated for The Departed as he should have. My Pick – Forest Whitaker
DL: Gosling’s performance was very solid, but I didn’t buy it as Oscar worthy, and DiCaprio’s nomination was a fumble as his work in The Departed was much better. O’Toole appears to be partially playing himself, while Smith’s nomination is his reward, like Gosling’s. Whitaker owns this award, and his win is pretty much guaranteed, unless voters (somehow) feel for O’Toole. My Pick – Forest Whitaker
BEST ACTRESS
Penélope Cruz – Volver, Judi Dench – Notes on a Scandal, Helen Mirren – The Queen, Meryl Streep – The Devil Wears Prada, Kate Winslet – Little Children
SM: All these women were incredible this year (with Dench just consuming the celluloid in Notes on a Scandal) but, I have to wonder, why are we even talking about this category? It’s Mirren’s year, and unless everybody is just too damn tired of hearing about her the chances of the actress losing are about as big as Rosie O’Donnell and Donald Trump snuggling intimately within one another’s arms on a couch. My Pick – Helen Mirren
DL: Yeah, well, if it was a perfect world, Kate Winslet would finally win her Oscar for a strong, emotional lead performance, but everyone’s talking about Mirren, who played (or imitated) the one and only Queen Elizabeth. She’s the obvious front runner and there is slim to no doubt she will win. The good thing is Winslet’s future looks bright and promising, so she’ll receive an Oscar eventually; sadly, it won’t be this year. My Pick – Helen Mirren
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Arkin – Little Miss Sunshine, Jackie Earle Haley – Little Children, Djimon Hounsou – Blood Diamond, Eddie Murphy – Dreamgirls, Mark Wahlberg – The Departed
SM: To many people, Eddie Murphy has this one in the bag. To me, I think he torpedoed any chance of an Oscar with his vile and disgusting Norbit. It’s over Mr. Murphy, and even though I think you are the most deserving I’m almost completely positive you lost an Academy Award selling out both your talent and your admirers by churning out crap in pursuit of the almighty dollar. In a perfect world, that means Mark Wahlberg should step in to steal your thunder. Unfortunately, the world is not perfect, so that means Alan Arkin is going to get a lifetime achievement award. My Pick – Alan Arkin
DL: Sara makes some good points, and it’s really a toss-up between Murphy and Arkin. As for Wahlberg he only had about 15 minutes of screen time, and despite a romp of a performance, his chances appear small. Haley’s reward is his nomination turning in a strong performance. My Pick – Eddie Murphy
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Adriana Barraza – Babel, Cate Blanchett – Notes on a Scandal, Abigail Breslin – Little Miss Sunshine, Jennifer Hudson – Dreamgirls, Rinko Kikuchi – Babel
SM: I adored Jennifer Hudson in Dreamgirls and have absolutely no problem with her winning (which she will). That said, I watched Babel again the other night and was blown away once again by Rinko Kikuchi. I’m starting to think that if I had my druthers, I’d go right ahead and give the Oscar to her. My Pick – Jennifer Hudson
DL: I would prefer Rinko Kikuchi to win, and co-star Adriana Barraza does a great job in her role. Abigail Breslin’s performance was cute and a major revelation in the movie, but Jennifer Hudson has the votes (presumably) locked up. My Pick – Jennifer Hudson
BEST DIRECTOR
Clint Eastwood – Letters from Iwo Jima, Stephen Frears – The Queen, Paul Greengrass – United 93, Alejandro González Iñárritu – Babel, Martin Scorsese – The Departed
SM: Paul Greengrass deserves to win this for United 93. It was, with almost no doubt, the best directed feature of 2006. He won’t win, however, as no director has ever taken home a statue when his film is not up for Best Picture. That means this award is Martin Scorsese’s to lose, and as just about everyone out there thinks the man is long overdue (is that even a question?) this looks to be his year to finally take Oscar home. My Pick – Martin Scorsese
DL: Eastwood did a great job but isn’t going to repeat a win, and Greengrass’ work was a showcase of excellence, but ultimately this award belongs to Scorsese, who is overdue, obviously. Iñárritu was phenomenal as well, but in the end Marty will be recognized for The Departed (and his past body of work). My Pick – Martin Scorsese
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Babel, Letters from Iwo Jima, Little Miss Sunshine, Pan’s Labyrinth, The Queen
SM: Michael Arndt has this one in the bag for Little Miss Sunshine, but I’d still love to see Guillermo del Toro walk away with the award for his stunning Pan’s Labyrinth. My Pick – Little Miss Sunshine
DL: Little Miss Sunshine appears to be the front runner and Babel follows close behind, and while The Queen might not win Best Picture it could (undeservedly) pull off the upset for screenplay. Pan’s Labyrinth is great at visuals, but the script is not necessarily so. Voters are likely going to reward the feel-good road movie because of what it is. My Pick – Little Miss Sunshine
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Borat, Children of Men, The Departed, Little Children, Notes on a Scandal
SM: Now, who out there wouldn’t want to see Borat win just so they could hear a Sacha Baron Cohen acceptance speech? Unfortunately, with so much improvised material it is highly doubtful this one even has a remote shot at an upset, but that still doesn’t make the thought of one any less nice. As for the rest, I’d love to see Children of Men take this one home, but Oscars don’t go to films with five writers so I’m pretty sure this Alfonso Cuarón masterpiece is as good as dead. That leaves William Monahan’s fast-paced and meticulously layered script for The Departed, its victory in the category all about a done deal. My Pick – The Departed
DL: Frankly, Borat should not even be nominated, never mind it’s the funniest movie of last year; it’s just not Oscar material and was there really a script for it? An outline, sure, but that’s it. Little Children and Children of Men were very good movies and I would like either one of them to win, but they don’t stand a chance against the juggernaut that (currently) is The Departed. My Pick – The Departed
BEST FOREIGN FILM
After the Wedding (Denmark), Days of Glory (Algeria), The Lives of Others (Germany), Pan’s Labyrinth (Mexico), Water (Canada)
SM: The fact Volver is not here is an absolute outrage. Be that as it may, The Lives of Others, Pan’s Labyrinth and Water are all superior nominees and each are worthy of winning. That said, with six nominations (as well as the most complicated and intoxicating storyline) del Toro’s masterpiece is almost in a class by itself. Expect it to win. My Pick – Pan’s Labyrinth
DL: Days of Glory didn’t play in Los Angeles as far as I know, otherwise I would’ve watched it as it looks quite good judging from the trailer. Pan’s Labyrinth was good and imaginative, not to mention mysterious, but I don’t agree it’s a great film. The best of the bunch here is The Lives of Others, a suspenseful thriller from Germany featuring solid acting, a taut script, great cinematography and score, and expert direction. I would like it to win, but a lot of momentum is going del Toro’s way so I’ll have to pick it (with restraint). My Pick – Pan’s Labyrinth
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Cars, Happy Feet, Monster House
SM: Considering their track record, would you bet against Pixar? I didn’t think so. My Pick – Cars
DL: Over the Hedge was kind of funny, too, but it’s not nominated. Cars was Pixar solidity, and I didn’t see the other two. My Pick – Cars
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Deliver Us from Evil, An Inconvenient Truth, Iraq in Fragments, Jesus Camp, My Country, My Country
SM: There are plenty of great candidates here, mostly notably Deliver Us from Evil and My Country, My Country, but anyone thinking Al Gore’s global warming documentary An Inconvenient Truth isn’t going to win hasn’t been paying very close attention of late. My Pick – An Inconvenient Truth
DL: Jesus Camp wasn’t that great as a documentary but its subject matter sure was very interesting, and I haven’t seen An Inconvenient Truth yet (part of it is I don’t subscribe to the Global Warming hoax), but it’s fairly obvious Gore’s sales pitch is going to win, unless Iraq in Fragments can (by some miracle) pull off the upset. However, this is just a guess, it could be one of the other two docs for all I know (which goes to say I don’t know). Enough guess-work, though. My Pick – An Inconvenient Truth (will win, should not)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Black Dahlia, Children of Men, The Illusionist, Pan’s Labyrinth, The Prestige
SM: Was there a more beautifully photographed film this year than Children of Men? I think not. My Pick – Children of Men
DL: All of these movies featured excellent cinematography, such as The Black Dahlia, but it was the moving images of Children of Men that impressed me the most. The single shot take towards the end of the movie, helped by special effects no doubt, was just excellent and felt realistically gritty. My Pick – Children of Men
BEST FILM EDITING
Babel, Blood Diamond, Children of Men, The Departed, United 93
SM: A film as good as United 93 has to win something… doesn’t it? My Pick – United 93
DL: I’m going to agree with Sara here. Despite great work in Babel and Children of Men, United 93 leads the pack in making an impact with its editing. My Pick – United 93
BEST MAKEUP
Apocalypto, Click, Pan’s Labyrinth
SM: Pan’s Labyrinth
DL: Pan’s Labyrinth. Who the heck voted for Click? This is insanity.
BEST ART DIRECTION
Dreamgirls, The Good Shepherd, Pan’s Labyrinth, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest, The Prestige
SM: Pan’s Labyrinth
DL: Pan’s Labyrinth
BEST SOUND MIXING
Apocalypto, Blood Diamond, Dreamgirls, Flags of Our Fathers, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest
SM: Dreamgirls
DL: I’m going to second that, however Flags of Our Fathers “should” take this one home.
BEST SOUND EDITING
Apocalypto, Blood Diamond, Flags of Out Fathers, Letters from Iwo Jima, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest
SM: Letters from Iwo Jima
DL: Letters from Iwo Jima
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest, Poseidon, Superman Returns
SM: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest
DL: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Curse of the Golden Flower, The Devil Wears Prada, Dreamgirls, Marie Antoinette, The Queen
SM: Dreamgirls
DL: Dreamgirls
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Babel, The Good German, Notes on a Scandal, Pan’s Labyrinth, The Queen
SM: Babel
DL: I own all five scores, so I’ve heard each and every track on the CD’s. Unfortunately, Clint Mansell’s work on The Fountain and Hans Zimmer’s composition for The Da Vinci Code were criminally overlooked in this category, and if it was up to me one or the other would take the place of Babel (it was mainly towards the end when the music uplifted). Other solid scores of 2006: Lady in the Water, X-Men: The Last Stand, All the King’s Men, The Promise, and The Black Dahlia. Javier Navarrete’s work on Pan’s Labyrinth has a good chance to win, as does Alexandre Desplat for The Queen. In the end, Desplat is the one to beat as he’s had another great year scoring films (Hostage and Syriana in 2005, as well as Firewall and The Painted Veil in 2006). My Pick - The Queen
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Our Town” – Cars, “Listen,” “Love You I Do” and “Patience” – Dreamgirls, “I Need to Wake Up” – An Inconvenient Truth
SM: “Listen” – Dreamgirls
DL: “Listen” – Dreamgirls
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
The Blood of Yingzhou District, Recycled Life, Rehearsing a Dream, Two Hands
SM: The Blood of Yingzhou District
DL: Recycled Life
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Blinta and the Great Idea, Éramos Pocos, Helmer & Son, The Saviour, West Bank Story
SM: West Bank Story
DL: West Bank Story
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
The Danish Poet, Lifted, The Little Matchgirl, Maestro, No Time for Nuts
SM: No Time for Nuts
DL: No Time for Nuts is a hilarious short featuring Scrat from Ice Age, and as it’s the only one I’ve seen, that’s the one I’d have to go with.
