2009 Academy Award Predictions
Milk, Knight Have a Shot but Millionaire and Button Will Lead the Noms

We’re less then a week away from the big reveal. Next Thursday, Hollywood finishes up with the overture and hits us with the opening credits to this year’s 81st Academy Awards presentation with the announcement of the nominees. Everything else has been handed out, the pre-season is over, the big game itself the only thing left for the star players to practice and get in shape for.

Dev Patel and Freida Pinto in Fox Searchlight's Slumdog Millionaire

About time. For the first time in I don’t know how long only one of the films I thought were amongst the best of last year has a legitimate shot at a Best Picture nomination, and if back in July you’d told me that said film would be The Dark Knight I’d have probably doubled over in laughter. I hate to repeat myself from a couple of weeks back but the simple fact is that 2008 was the year of the very good not the year of the absolutely magnificent, and this season’s most talked about potential nominees are by and large all going to represent that fact.

There are exceptions. Darren Aronofsky’s resurrection of actor Mickey Rourke with the drama The Wrestler could end up with a surprise nod in the top category, while all the critics groups piling praise upon Pixar/Disney’s WALL-E might propel that little robotic wonder into the spotlight making it only the second animated film in history (1991’s Beauty & The Beast being the other) to earn a Best Picture nomination.

I’m not holding my breath for either, however, and while both will get plenty of notices (and while the latter is as close to a lock as there is as far as Animated Feature is concerned) I just don’t see them walking away with Oscar’s top honor. No, this will be the year of Slumdog Millionaire and of The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, and if each of those two doesn’t come out of Thursday’s nomination ceremony with a whole slew of nods I’d be freakishly surprised.

A film a lot of people are talking about is Milk, Gus Van Sant’s solid – and amazingly well acted – melodrama about the life of 1970’s slain San Francisco civil rights leader and popular politician Harvey Milk. My gut tells me fans will be very happy, and if the movie, Van Sant, writer Dustin Lance Black, editor Elliot Graham and stars Sean Penn and Josh Brolin don’t all get nominations I’ll eat one of my stylish yet affordable high-heeled shoes.

All kidding aside, here are my predictions as to this year’s nominations in some of the top categories. Check back next Friday to see how I did (and if I have to scarf down some patent leather).

BEST PICTURE

LOCKS: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Slumdog Millionaire – At this point, betting against either of these would be akin to career suicide to those in my particular field. As I already stated, expect both David Fincher’s Americana epic and Danny Boyle’s Dickensonian hardscrabble Indian love story to lead the way with the most nominations.

Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett in Paramount Pictures' The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

SAFE BETS: Milk, Frost/Nixon – These two have received a lot of critical love but not quite as much box office adoration making them both vulnerable in regards to being singled out for Oscar’s highest honor. If one falls by the wayside my bet is on the latter. Other than a killer third act it really doesn’t offer all that much and I’m not completely sold that it’s as much of shoe-in as a lot of people seem to think.

MORE THAN LIKELY: The Dark Knight – That $560-million-plus box office figure cannot be dismissed, and the Academy loves to recognize hugely successful smash hits that also happen to be very, very good. They just don’t usually win, especially if they’re a genre picture like this one.

WILDCARDS: The Wrestler, WALL-E, Gran Torino, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Revolutionary Road, Rachel Getting Married –I’d love to see three of this six up for the award, but while that matrimonial melodrama, the animated robot love story and the bellicose body slam saga of redemption all blew my socks off they’re on the outside looking in as far as Best Picture is concerned. If one does sneak in, mymoney is on the one directed and staring a certain guy named Eastwood. If the Academy has proven nothing else over the years it’s that they love them some Clint.

MY PREDICTION: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Gran Torino, Milk, Slumdog Millionaire

BEST ACTOR

LOCKS: Sean Penn (Milk), Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler) – It’s no contest right now. These are the two men to beat, both of them delivering career-best performances worthy of recognition.

Mickey Rourke in Fox Searchlight's The Wrestler

SAFE BET: Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino) – Supposedly his last work as an actor, Clint calls upon the ghosts of so many iconic characters to bring geriatric racist Walt Kowalski to life I’m starting to think the guy isn’t only going to get a nomination, he’s probably going to win.

MORE THAN LIKELY: Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon) – He’s got a killer scene at the start of the third act and, by and large, most people love him in the role of disgraced President Richard Nixon. He’s already won a Tony for this performance, however, and the movie’s so-so take at the turnstile certainly isn’t doing him any favors.

WILDCARDS: Benicio del Toro (CHE), Leonardo DiCaprio (Revolutionary Road), Colin Farrell (In Bruge), Dustin Hoffman (Last Chance Harvey), Richard Jenkins (The Visitor), Brad Pitt (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button) – This is a tough category this year. Globe win aside, you can cross Farrell off your list (the movie came out too early in the year) and Hoffman’s chances are pretty slim (his came out too late and no one’s seen it). That leaves four, and of them I think the nod is going to go to veteran character actor Jenkins. As great as everyone was, he stuck with me more than any other male actor in 2008, and it would be a true shame if the Academy didn’t recognize him.

PREDICTIONS: Clint Eastwood, Richard Jenkins, Sean Penn, Brad Pitt, Mickey Rourke

BEST ACTRESS

LOCKS: Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married), Meryl Streep (Doubt) – Never bet against Streep, while Hathaway is this year’s ingénue darling (the absolutely horrific Bride Wars notwithstanding). Both are going to get nods. Both are going to be considered the frontrunners to win.

Anne Hathaway in Sony Pictures Classics' Rachel Getting Married

SAFE BET: Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road) – The only reason I don’t upgrade Winslet to a lock is that she has two performances (The Reader being the other) that could end up splitting her vote and leaving the marvelously talented actress out in the cold. The producers may be asking folks to recognize her in this category for her performance in her husband Sam Mendes’ film and in supporting for the other one, but that doesn’t mean they have to. In short, anything could happen. Don’t be surprised if it does.

MORE THAN LIKELY: Sally Hawkins (Happy-Go-Lucky), Kristin Scott Thomas (I’ve Loved You So Long) – Both women were fantastic, Thomas giving my very favorite performance of the entire year, in their respective films; they just unfortunately gave them in pictures not many people have actually seen.

WILDCARDS: Kate Beckinsale (Nothing but the Truth), Cate Blanchett (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), Angelina Jolie (Changeling), Melissa Leo (Frozen River), Michelle Williams (Wendy and Lucy) – Other than Beckinsale (who got royally screwed when the company owning her film suddenly went bankrupt), I could see just about any of these ladies sneaking into the top five. Williams is the most deserving, but Leo is the one I’d put money on.

PREDICTIONS: Anne Hathaway, Sally Hawkins, Melissa Leo, Meryl Streep, Kate Winslet

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

LOCKS: Health Ledger (The Dark Knight) – Uh, yeah. I don’t think I have to say anything here. It’s pretty much self explanatory.

Josh Brolin in Focus Features' Milk

SAFE BETS: Josh Brolin (Milk), Robert Downey, Jr. (Tropic Thunder), Philip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt) – Brolin has been on a run the likes of which most actors dream of, Downey had a 2008 to covet and Hoffman is, well, Hoffman; the guy just can’t give a bad performance.

MORE THAN LIKELY: Dev Patel (Slumdog Millionaire) – My question if Patel gets nominated? Why? He’s easily the weakest link in the film. More, he’s also the lead, so why he’s even competing in this category in the first place is sort of a head-scratcher.

WILDCARDS: Tom Cruise (Tropic Thunder), James Franco (Milk), Emile Hirsch (Milk), Bill Irwin (Rachel Getting Married), Eddie Marson (Happy-Go-Lucky), Brad Pitt (Burn After Reading), Liev Schrieber (Defiance), Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road) – This is usually the category where anything and everything can happen, so any of these guys has a legitimate shot. It has to go to Shannon, though. It just has to. The guy was explosive; his eight or so minutes of screen time so unforgettable a month later I still can’t get him out of my head.

PREDICTIONS: Josh Brolin, Robert Downey, Jr., Philip Seymour Hoffman, Heath Ledger, Michael Shannon

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

LOCKS: Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona), Viola Davis (Doubt) – If you’ve seen either film you know why these two ladies are locks. They just don’t steal their films, they own them so far beyond question you can’t imagine either without them.

Kate Winslet in The Weinstein Company's The Reader

SAFE BET: Kate Winslet (The Reader) – See Best Actress category. What I said there still applies.

MORE THAN LIKELY: Amy Adams (Doubt), Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler) – Two more strong performances, and in any other year they might have had a chance to win the statue outright.

WILDCARDS: Hiam Abbas (The Visitor), Rosemarie Dewitt (Rachel Getting Married), Rebecca Hall (Vicky Cristina Barcelona), Taraji P. Henson (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), Debra Winger (Rachel Getting Married), Evan Rachel Wood (The Wrestler), Elsa Zylberstein (I’ve Love You So Long) – Again, this is a strong category, and trying to pick any of these women one over the other is borderline impossible. I’d love it if either Abbas or Zylberstein got a surprise nomination, though. That would totally make my Thursday morning.

PREDICTONS: Penelope Cruz, Viola Davis, Rosemarie Dewitt, Marisa Tomei, Kate Winslet

BEST DIRECTOR

LOCKS: Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire), David Fincher (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button) – It’s almost gotten a bit boring just how much these two have been singled out, but it’s too hard to predict against the tide at this point. That said, does anyone else find it odd Boyle keeps getting noticed for his direction when his film had a co-director?

Director Christopher Nolan on the set of Warner Bros' The Dark Knight

SAFE BETS: Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight), Gus Van Sant (Milk) – The Director’s Guild is rarely wrong with their nominations as far as syncing them up to the Academy Awards is concerned, and seeing Nolan made the cut with them who am I to say the same won’t happen where it comes to Oscar?

MORE THAN LIKELY: Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon) – Again, I’m just going with the Director’s Guild because, personally, I don’t think this is one of Howard’s better days at the office (those would be Apollo 13, Night Shift, Ransom, The Missing and Cinderella Man).

WILDCARDS: Woody Allen (Vicky Cristina Barcelona), Darren Aronofsky (The Wrestler), Stephen Daldry (The Reader), Jonathan Demme (Rachel Getting Married), Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino), Mike Leigh (Happy-Go-Lucky), Sam Mendes (Revolutionary Road), Andrew Stanton (WALL-E) – I’d love to see Aronofsky or Demme sneak in, but if one guy gets elevated it will probably be Dirty Harry. I’m just sayin’.

PREDICTIONS: Danny Boyle, Clint Eastwood, David Fincher, Christopher Nolan, Gus Van Sant

- portions of this article reprinted courtesy of the SGN in Seattle