Senior Theatrical Editor
www.moviefreak.com
2009 Oscar Thoughts and Predictions
Slumdog Millionaire Clear Frontrunner for Academy Award Glory
It’s a little hard for me to talk about the 81st annual Academy Awards. Not because I don’t like any of the nominees up for the top prize, I do, but more because as nice as all five are I just don’t feel like they’re worthy of the recognition. The truth of the matter is, in all my years writing about film for publication (a stretch going back to the sixth grade) I’ve never experienced a year where none of my top ten was up for Best Picture, and egotistical as this may sound thanks to that my interest level has decidedly waned.
Fox Searchlight's Slumdog Millionaire the frontrunner to win the 81st Academy Award for Best Picture of the Year
Even so, I have a tough time imagining we’re going to be talking about Slumdog Millionaire, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Milk, Frost/Nixon or The Reader two or three decades from now. A part of me believes that films like WALL•E, Man on Wire, I’ve Loved You for So Long, The Wrestler, Rachel Getting Married and, yes, even The Dark Knight are the ones which will still be provoking multilayered discussions long after the nominated five are nothing more than historical footnotes.
That doesn’t mean this year’s race isn’t without its curiosities. Will the sixth time be the charm for the multitalented Kate Winslet, or will the woman with the most nominations in Oscar history, Meryl Streep, take the top prize after a 25-year Kodak Theater acceptance speech absence? Will Sean Penn get his second golden statue, or will Mickey Rourke rise like a phoenix from the ashes and see his passionate comeback conquer the penultimate plateau? Finally, will Heath Ledger become only the second actor in Academy history (Peter Finch was the first, winning for 1976’s Network) to posthumously garner Hollywood’s highest honor, a feat not even iconoclasts like James Dean or Spencer Tracey were able to accomplish?
These questions and more hover over these Academy Awards, and even if I don’t have a vested interest in who is going to take home Best Picture I’m still mighty fascinated to see how the rest of the evening goes. With that in mind, here are my personal predictions for who is going to take home an Oscar this Sunday. For the most part, it’s all pretty cut and dry, and if I were a betting woman I’d put good money down that this is the way the winners are going to be announced.
For those keeping score, your webmaster and my editor Dennis Steven Landmann has also made some predictions here. Since we’ve been doing this over the past few years he has actually beaten me a grand total of one time. I guarantee you, that second time is NOT happening in 2009. You can take that to the bank.
And, with that, here are the predictions!
BEST PICTURE
The Nominees: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, Milk, The Reader, Slumdog Millionaire
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire – It is has the momentum, and I just can’t see that changing.
Should Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Inevitable Forest Gump comparisons aside, this is the only one for me that showed a real spark of imagination going beyond the norm, and while I would have liked a more emotional connection with the main character it is also the only one of the five I find myself still thinking about.
Potential Upset: Milk – It’s gaining steam in some quarters, and those still smarting about Crash edging out Brokeback Mountain in 2005 see a win for this biopic as their chance for redemption.
Egregious Omission: WALL•E – The one movie I guarantee people will be talking about for decades, this might just be one of the greatest films, not just animated, mind you, that I have personally ever seen.
Will Win (Dennis Landmann): Milk
Should Win (Dennis Landmann): Milk
Egregious Omission: The Dark Knight – Who does Christopher Nolan have to hump to get a nomination around here? (Family Guy reference in case someone doesn't know.)
BEST DIRECTOR
The Nominees: Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire), Stephen Daldry (The Reader), David Fincher (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon), Gus Van Sant (Milk)
Will Win: Danny Boyle – It’s pretty much a given at this point (never mind the fact the movie was co-directed by Loveleen Tandan), everything tilting the talented Brit’s way.
Should Win: Gus Van Sant – I may not be as big a fan of Milk as everyone else, but I still appreciate what it was Van Sant was able to accomplish and of the nominees he is the clear choice to my mind.
Potential Upset: Van Sant – If there is a Slumdog backlash, expect Milk to be the recipient.
Egregious Omission: Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight) – Having watched the latest adventure of the Caped Crusader again recently, I was struck just how much Nolan was able to accomplish, balancing so many storylines so effortlessly while also hiding the fact a great deal of the plot didn’t make a lick of sense.
Will Win (Dennis Landmann): Danny Boyle
Should Win (Dennis Landmann): David Fincher
Egregious Omission: Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight) – Respect.
BEST ACTOR
The Nominees: Richard Jenkins (The Visitor), Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon), Sean Penn (Milk), Brad Pitt (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)
Will Win: Sean Penn – I’ve been saying he was going to win since the first second I saw the film and I’m not about to change my mind now.
Should Win: Richard Jenkins – His performance in The Visitor absolutely ripped my heart in two, Jenkins' work as nice a piece of emotional understatement as any I could have dreamt of.
Potential Upset: Mickey Rourke – Not that a win for the actor would actually be considered a real upset. In all actuality, it’s probably fifty-fifty between he and Penn right now for the Oscar, Rourke’s tour de force impossible to forget
Egregious Omission: Leonardo DiCaprio (Revolutionary Road) – In my opinion, this is the best performance the actor has ever given and it is a sad testament that the downbeat nature of the film caused him to miss out on a top five spot while so-so work by Pitt and Langella slipped in ahead of him. (Exactly right. DiCaprio was great. -Dennis)
Will Win (Dennis Landmann): Sean Penn
Should Win (Dennis Landmann): Richard Jenkins
BEST ACTRESS
The Nominees: Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married), Angelina Jolie (Changeling), Melissa Leo (Frozen River), Meryl Streep (Doubt), Kate Winslet (The Reader)
Will Win: Meryl Streep – I just think she’s got the momentum (no matter what people might have suspected after the Golden Globes), that SAG win a real barometer of what the Academy is actually thinking.
Should Win: Anne Hathaway – Anyone who has ever known an addict knows just how explosively good she was in this.
Potential Upset: Kate Winslet – Is this even a surprise? Everyone and their sister wants the actress to win, and much like the Best Actor category I think it is even-steven between her and Streep right now.
Egregious Omission: Kristin Scott Thomas (I’ve Loved You So Long) – Hands down, last year’s best performance. No one came even close, and the fact the snobby members of the Academy didn’t take the time to even watch the darn screener just ticks me off like crazy.
Will Win (Dennis Landmann): Kate Winslet
Should Win (Dennis Landmann): Kate Winslet
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The Nominees: Josh Brolin (Milk), Robert Downey Jr. (Tropic Thunder), Philip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt), Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight), Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road)
Will Win: Heath Ledger – No contest, this race has been over since July of last year.
Should Win: Josh Brolin – I know I’m risking hate mail, and I agree that Ledger was brilliant, but Brolin’s work in Milk just worked even better for me, the complicated duality he brought to Dan White something I wasn’t anticipating.
Potential Upset: Philip Seymour Hoffman – He’s the only one I can think of taking this from Ledger, but even then it is such a longshot I’m falling over in my chair laughing even as I type this out.
Egregious Omission: None – These were the five actors I hoped would get nominated and, to my surprise and happiness, they were. Go figure.
Will Win (Dennis Landmann): Heath Ledger
Should Win (Dennis Landmann): Michael Shannon
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The Nominees: Amy Adams (Doubt), Penélope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona), Viola Davis (Doubt), Taraji P. Henson (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler)
Will Win: Penélope Cruz – With Kate Winslet out of the running, the fiery Spanish actress has this one in the bag.
Should Win: Cruz – And rightfully so, too. She makes Vicky Cristina Barcelona crackle and soar, the electricity igniting every time she hits the screen so magnetic I dare viewers to take their eyes off of her.
Potential Upset: Taraji P. Henson – She’s the one getting the buzz even if personally I don’t see it. After all, of these five, she’s the only one I would not have nominated.
Egregious Omission: Rosemarie Dewitt (Rachel Getting Married) – What she did in this film was a minor miracle, the rich complexity of her performance as soaring and unforgettable as the motion picture itself.
Will Win (Dennis Landmann): Penélope Cruz
Should Win (Dennis Landmann): Marisa Tomei
…and as for the rest
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Nominees: Courtney Hunt (Frozen River), Mike Leigh (Happy-Go-Lucky), Martin McDonagh (In Bruges), Dustin Lance Black (Milk), Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter and Jim Reardon (WALL•E)
Will Win: Milk
Should Win: WALL•E
Will Win (Dennis Landmann): Milk
Should Win (Dennis Landmann): In Bruges
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Nominees: Eric Roth and Robin Swicord (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), John Patrick Shanley (Doubt), Peter Morgan (Frost/Nixon), David Hare (The Reader), Simon Beaufoy (Slumdog Millionaire)
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: Doubt
Will Win (Dennis Landmann): Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win (Dennis Landmann): The Reader
BEST FOREGIN LANGUAGE FILM
The Nominees: Der Baader Meinhof Komplex (Germany), The Class (France), Departures (Japan), Revanche (Austria), Waltz with Bashir (Israel)
Will Win: Waltz with Bashir
Should Win: The Class
Will Win (Dennis Landmann): The Class
Should Win (Dennis Landmann): Waltz with Bashir
BEST ANIMATED FILM
The Nominees: Bolt, Kung Fu Panda, WALL•E
Will Win: WALL•E
Should Win: WALL•E
Will Win (Dennis Landmann): WALL•E
Should Win (Dennis Landmann): WALL•E
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The Nominees: The Betrayal – Nerakhoon, Encounters at the End of the World, The Garden, Man on Wire, Trouble the Water
Will Win: Man on Wire
Should Win: Man on Wire
Will Win (Dennis Landmann): Encounters at the End of the World
Should Win (Dennis Landmann): Encounters at the End of the World
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Nominees: Tom Stern (Changeling), Claudio Miranda (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), Wally Pfister (The Dark Knight), Roger Deakins and Chris Menges (The Reader), Anthony Dod Mantle (Slumdog Millionaire)
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: The Reader
Will Win (Dennis Landmann): Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win (Dennis Landmann): The Dark Knight
BEST EDITING
The Nominees: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Milk, Slumdog Millionaire
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Will Win (Dennis Landmann): The Dark Knight
Should Win (Dennis Landmann): The Dark Knight
BEST ART DIRECTION
The Nominees: Changeling, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, The Duchess, Revolutionary Road
Will Win: The Dark Knight
Should Win: Changeling
Will Win (Dennis Landmann): The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Should Win (Dennis Landmann): The Dark Knight
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Nominees: Australia, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Duchess, Milk, Revolutionary Road
Will Win: The Duchess
Should Win: Milk
Will Win (Dennis Landmann): The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Should Win (Dennis Landmann): Milk
BEST MAKEUP
The Nominees: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Hellboy II: The Golden Army
Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Should Win: Hellboy II: The Golden Army
Will Win (Dennis Landmann): The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Should Win (Dennis Landmann): The Dark Knight
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Nominees: Alexandre Desplat (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), James Newton Howard (Defiance), Danny Elfman (Milk), A.R. Rahman (Slumdog Millionaire), Thomas Newman (WALL•E)
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: WALL•E
Will Win (Dennis Landmann): Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win (Dennis Landmann): The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
The Nominees: “Jai Ho” (Slumdog Millionaire), “O Saya” (Slumdog Millionaire), “Down to Earth” (WALL•E)
Will Win: “Down to Earth” (WALL•E)
Should Win: “Jai Ho” (Slumdog Millionaire)
Will Win (Dennis Landmann):
Should Win (Dennis Landmann):
BEST SOUND
The Nominees: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Slumdog Millionaire, WALL•E, Wanted
Will Win: WALL•E
Should Win: WALL•E
Will Win (Dennis Landmann): The Dark Knight
Should Win (Dennis Landmann): The Dark Knight
BEST SOUND EDITING
The Nominees: The Dark Knight, Iron Man, Slumdog Millionaire, WALL•E, Wanted
Will Win: WALL•E
Should Win: WALL•E
Will Win (Dennis Landmann): The Dark Knight
Should Win (Dennis Landmann): The Dark Knight
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Nominees: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Iron Man
Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Should Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Will Win (Dennis Landmann): The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Should Win (Dennis Landmann): The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
The Nominees: The Conscience of Nhem En, The Final Inch, Smile Pinki, The Witness from the Balcony of Room 306
Will Win: Smile Pinki
Should Win: The Witness from the Balcony of Room 306
Will Win (Dennis Landmann): The Witness from the Balcony of Room 306
BEST SHORT FILM – ANIMATED
The Nominees: La Maison en petits cubes, Lavatory Lovestory, Oktapodi, Presto, This Way Up
Will Win: This Way Up
Should Win: Lavatory Lovestory
Will Win (Dennis Landmann): Presto
BEST SHORT FILM – LIVE ACTION
The Nominees: Manon on the Asphalt, New Boy, On the Line, The Pig, Toyland
Will Win: Toyland
Should Win: The Pig
Will Win (Dennis Landmann): Toyland
- portions of this article reprinted courtesy of the SGN in Seattle
Additional Links
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- Interview with Happy-Go-Lucky writer/director Mike Leigh by Sara Michelle Fetters
- Interview with Milk director Gus Van Sant and writer Dustin Lance Black by Sara Michelle Fetters
- Interview with Milk actors Josh Brolin, James Franco, Emile Hirsch and Allison Pill by Sara Michelle Fetters
- Interview with The Visitor actor Richard Jenkins by Sara Michelle Fetters
- www.oscar.com - The Official Homepage of the 81st Academy Awards
