And the Nomination Goes To...

In a Crowded Year, Your Guess is as Good as Mine

By Sara Michelle Fetters

It’s about that time again... time to break out the ball gown, dust off the tuxedo and worry incessantly about that pesky acceptance speech. Yes, with nomination being announced this Tuesday, January 25th, it’s officially Oscar time, and for once this year’s group of potential nominees is latterly up in the air.

Well, mostly up in the air; there is at least one or two locks in each of the categories we can be pretty much certain about. That said, when the nominations are announced Tuesday morning expect a slew of surprises, for with so many contenders and only five slots per category expect more than a few dashed dreams.

The following is my annual attempt to guess the nominations for the major categories. Last year, other than rightfully predicting “The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King” would be a shoe-in across the board (but who didn’t know that one?), I was pretty awful at doing this. I’d like to say this year I’ll do better, but that’s probably a lie, so take these deductions with a grain a salt as the Academy of Motion Picture’s Arts & Sciences is sure to make me look like a fool once again.

BEST PICTURE

The Contenders: The Aviator, Closer, Collateral, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Fahrenheit 9/11, Finding Neverland, Hotel Rwanda, The Incredibles, Kinsey, Million Dollar Baby, The Motorcycle Diaries, The Passion of the Christ, The Phantom of the Opera, Ray, Sideways, Vera Drake

Some of these don’t have a shot. The landslide by Chicago in 2003 notwithstanding, the Phantom of the Opera just isn’t good enough or loved enough to make the cut. As for Closer, Eternal Sunshine and Vera Drake, these were all either just too small, too underwhelming at the box office or released too long a go to have much of an impact other than in some of the acting and screenwriting categories.

Of the rest, Martin Scorsese’s The Aviator and Alexander Payne’s Sideways, fresh off Golden Globe wins, are virtual locks, while Clint Eastwood’s Million Dollar Baby is as probably as close to one as you’re ever likely to find. That leaves two slots and, at least in my opinion, five viable candidates in Collateral, Finding Neverland, Kinsey, The Motorcycle Diaries and Ray. Of these, I expect Finding Neverland  and Ray to take the slots but wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if one or even two of the others bumps their way in.

The wildcards to all of this come in the colors of three completely disparate films that don’t even remotely fit the profile for a usual Best Picture Nominee. Be that as it may, The Passion of the Christ, Fahrenheit 9/11 and The Incredibles all have a distinct shot at setting precedent and scoring a nomination. Don’t count on it, but in the world of Oscar stranger things have happened.

BEST ACTOR

The Contenders: Javier Bardem (The Sea Inside), Gael García Bernal (The Motorcycle Diaries), Jeff Bridges (The Door in the Floor), Jim Carrey (Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind), James Caviezel (The Passion of the Christ), Don Cheadle (Hotel Rwanda), Tom Cruise (Collateral), Johnny Depp (Finding Neverland), Leonardo DiCaprio (The Aviator), Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby), Jamie Foxx (Ray), Paul Giamatti (Sideways), Kevin Kline (De-Lovely), Liam Neeson (Kinsey), Dennis Quaid (In Good Company)

There are going to be plenty of unhappy actors this year, that’s for sure, because – for once, at least – everyone listed above is actually deserving of nomination, even the actors in the films I didn’t particularly care for. That said, Cruise isn’t going to get the same ovation Denzel Washington received for becoming a bad guy, mainly because the everywhere Foxx stole the picture right out from under him. As for Bridges, I don’t think enough people saw The Door in the Floor to give him his due while Carrey probably won’t receive a nomination until he goes all, “Captain, my captain” on us and schmaltz’s one in.

Based on that, here’s what we know: Jamie Foxx is a lock and will probably win the Oscar. DiCaprio, giving his best performance since being nominated in What’s Eating Gilbert Grape?, is probably a lock as well for The Aviator. For the other three – and I’m pretty much guessing here – I’m going to go with the on-a-roll Depp, Sideways star Giamatti (whose nomination would make up for his American Splendor snub) and Cheadle (the heart and soul of Hotel Rwanda).

BEST ACTRESS

The Contenders: Kim Basinger (The Door in the Floor), Annette Benning (Being Julia), Julie Delpy (Before Sunset), Ashley Judd (De-Lovely), Nicole Kidman (Birth), Catalina Sandino Moreno (Maria Full of Grace), Emmy Rossum (The Phantom of the Opera), Imelda Staunton (Vera Drake), Hilary Swank (Million Dollar Baby), Audrey Tautou (A Very Long Engagement), Uma Thurman (Kill Bill, Vol. 2), Kate Winslet (Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind)

In a weak year for actresses, if there is a major surprise this where it is going to happen. On the anticipation front, what most people are of course talking about is a repeat of 2000’s Academy Awards when both Benning and Swank went head-to-head as the front runners. It’s going to happen again, that’s almost a certain, the only thing stopping it the pesky fact Annette’s film was completely mediocre while Hilary’s is pretty close to brilliant. That said, both are deserving and it should be fun to see the two of them playing nice at the ceremony once again.

As for the other three slots, I don’t think either Basinger or Thurman has a shot in hell to get a nod, with Kidman and Delpy probably joining them there on the also-ran podium. It’s purely conjecture, but I’m going to pencil in Moreno, Staunton and Winslet, which means better luck next time (and hopefully a better film) for young ingénue Rossum.

BEST DIRECTOR

The Contenders: Pedro Almodóvar (Bad Education), Bill Condon (Kinsey), Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby), Marc Forster (Finding Neverland), Terry George (Hotel Rwanda), Mel Gibson (The Passion of the Christ), Michel Gondry (Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind), Taylor Hackford (Ray), Jean-Pierre Jeunet (A Very Long Engagement), Michael Mann (Collateral), Mike Nichols (Closer), Alexander Payne (Sideways), Walter Salles (The Motorcycle Diaries), Martin Scorsese (The Aviator), Zhang Yimou (Hero or The House of Flying Daggers)

It’s the Scorsese/Eastwood show, with everyone else trying to fill the final three spots. Traditionally, if a foreign film is going to break through this is the category it is going to happen in. Same goes for a statement or affirmation of someone’s ability to hold to their vision. That’s good news for Almodóvar, Gibson, Jeunet, Salles and Yimou. Of course, the chances of all (or even a majority) of them receiving a nod are pretty slim, but I’ll still take bets one or more will find their way into the ranks of the top five.

I’m going to go out on a limb and say both Gibson and Salles are going to get nominations, with Ray director Hackford getting the final spot in honor of spending the last 15 years trying to get his biopic made. As for the others, looks like it’s going to be a big, “Better luck next year.”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The Contenders: Alan Alda (The Aviator), Alec Baldwin (The Aviator), David Carradine (Kill Bill, Vol. 2), Thomas Hayden Church (Sideways), Jamie Foxx (Collateral), Morgan Freeman (Million Dollar Baby), James Garner (The Notebook), Topher Grace (In Good Company), Freddie Highmore (Finding Neverland) Alfred Molina (Spider-Man 2), Clive Owen (Closer), Mark Wahlberg (I Heart Huckabees)

Supporting categories are always full of surprises. All you have to do is recall just a couple of years a go and Ethan Hawke getting an out of left field nomination for Training Day. This year shouldn’t be as shocking, however, with most of the nominees coming from a set group who’ve found themselves nominated again and again this past winter.

That means Grace, Molina, Wahlberg and Baldwin are out of luck, while I’m voting against Garner just purely on the fact The Notebook was one of the bigger piles of s**t to see release last year. More than likely, expect the Oscars to look much like the Globes, with Church, Foxx (who could be the first actor in history to win in both the lead and supporting categories), Freeman and Owen as close to locks as you can possibly get. For the fifth spot, my money isn’t on old men (both justly deserving) Alda or Carradine, but on 12-year-old Highmore. The Academy just loves to honor children in the supporting category, and young Freddie stole Finding Neverland right out from under Johnny Depp’s nose.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The Contenders: Cate Blanchett (The Aviator), Maggie Cheung (Hero), Julie Christie (Finding Neverland), Regina King (Ray), Laura Linney (Kinsey), Virginia Madsen (Sideways), Sophie Okonedo (Hotel Rwanda), Natalie Portman (Closer), Gena Rowlands (The Notebook), Meryl Streep (The Manchurian Candidate), Sharon Warren (Ray), Kate Winslet (Finding Neverland)

Looking at this category, I firmly believe everything and anything could happen. Will Streep get a record thirteenth nomination? Maybe. Will Christie or Rowlands get a long-deserved win in recognition of astonishing careers? Possibly. Will Blanchett get the ovation she should have gotten for Elizabeth? There’s a chance. Will the Academy think outside the box and send a nom in Cheung’s direction? Doubtful, but we can always hope.

All that said, my guess is that the surprise in this category will be there won’t be a surprise. Look for Portman and Madsen to duke it out for the statue, while Blanchett and Linney fill two of the final three spots. As for the fifth spot, I think one of the talented women in Ray will find their way onto the list. Of them, I think it’s King, but won’t be surprised in the slightest if the nod goes to the talented Warren instead.

Of course, all this gets thrown out the window if The Aviator, Ray or Sideways starts to sweep the nominations. If that’s the case, than Kate Beckinsale, Sandra Oh and both of Jamie Foxx’s effervescent co-stars might want to start looking for a good fashion designer to help get them across the red carpet.

Article Posted: 01.21.05