FEATURE COLUMN

The 75th Annual Academy Awards - Nominations Preview

Honored Films, Actors, and Co.

By Sara Michelle Fetters

Now that the Golden Globes are history and with only three short weeks remaining until the nominations are announced, the time for Oscar prognosticating is at hand. Normally this is a pretty easy game, the films viable to receive nominations consist of a relatively short list.

Typically, studios back load all of their more “prestige” fair in the final three months of the year hoping to earn Oscar gold. Nine times out of ten most of these turn out to be middling (2001’s The Shipping News) or even downright awful (The Majestic or Pay It Forward, anyone?), thus the effect of all of this is that once-thought contenders fall meteorically to the wayside with only a handful of movies remaining that the Academy can in good taste (not that good taste has really ever stopped them in the past) nominate.

But something strange happened in 2002. The same glut of high profile films hit the multiplexes like many a year prior. What was different this time around was that most – if not all of them depending on whom you ask – were good to downright great, creating a quandary for those that like to play "pick the nominees" when it comes to Academy Award forecasting.

With the Globes out of the way and only the respective Director’s and Actor’s Guilds remaining to dole out their nominees and awards, I feel ready to finally take a shot at picking whom I think the Academy will nominate for the major awards this year. Granted, these aren’t necessarily the films I want to be nominated so much the ones I think will be nominated, so keep that in mind. None of this is an exact science, however; don’t hold it against me when I get some (maybe most) of these wrong.

BEST PICTURE

Locks: Chicago and The Hours. The buzz surrounding these two was loudest well before their Golden Globe wins. Those meaningless little statues from the Hollywood Foreign Press only cemented their status as frontrunners.

Likely: About Schmidt. The furor over Nicholson’s performance not withstanding, Alexander Payne’s new film seems to have a great deal of momentum behind it.

In the Running: Lord of the Rings: the Two Towers, Gangs of New York, Adaptation, Far From Heaven, Bowling For Columbine, The Pianist, My Big Fat Greek Wedding. All have momentum of one sort or another and could filter in to the nominee list, with only Greek Wedding standing out as a mediocre film. But by becoming the most successful independently produced and distributed movie of all time, don’t be surprised if it enters the list of five nominees.

My Guesses: Chicago, The Hours, LOTR: The Two Towers, Gangs of New York and About Schmidt.

BEST DIRECTOR

Locks: Martin Scorsese (Gangs of New York), Stephen Daldry (The Hours) and Peter Jackson (LOTR: The Two Towers). Scorsese’s win at the Globes cemented it, but he was probably the frontrunner anyhow. Daldry took an unfilmable novel and made it something special, whilst Jackson just keeps amazing us with the Tolkien saga.

Likely: Rob Marshall (Chicago) and Todd Haynes (Far From Heaven). Both films have been (justifiably) lauded for their direction and it seems unlikely nominations for both shouldn’t be forthcoming, but surprises typically happen in this category.

In the Running: Pedro Almodóvar (Talk to Her), Roman Polanski (The Pianist), Alexander Payne (About Schmidt), Spike Jonze (Adaptation), Steven Spielberg (Minority Report), Denzel Washington (Antwone Fisher), Philip Noyce (The Quiet American and Rabbit-Proof Fence), Alfonso Cuarón (Y Tu Mamá También). Your guess is as good as mine as to if any of these will get a nomination, all being more or less deserving.

My Guesses: Scorsese, Daldry, Jackson, Haynes and Almodóvar.

BEST ACTRESS

Locks: Julianne Moore (Far From Heaven), Nicole Kidman (The Hours) and Diane Lane (Unfaithful). In a strong year for actresses, these three keep continually being singled out for mention.

Likely: Renée Zellweger (Chicago). That Globe win sure helps, but remember, she won once before for Nurse Betty and was denied a nomination.

In the Running: Jennifer Aniston (The Good Girl), Salma Hayek (Frida), Nia Vardalos (My Big Fat Greek Wedding), Maggie Gyllenhaal (Secretary), Catherine Keener (Lovely & Amazing), Samantha Morton (Morvern Callar), Meryl Streep (The Hours). Expect someone here from this list that you don’t expect to get a nomination to actually end up getting one.

My Guesses: Moore, Kidman, Lane, Zellweger and Vardalos.

BEST ACTOR

Locks: Daniel Day-Lewis (Gangs of New York), Jack Nicholson (About Schmidt) and Michael Caine (The Quiet American). Three titans giving three of their best performances; expect the eventual winner to be one of them.

Likely: Nicolas Cage (Adaptation). A dual performance that has been generating buzz before anyone even saw the film. In almost any other year he’d be the front-runner, but in a 2002 beyond strong he might not even get a nomination.

In the Running: Adrian Brody (The Pianist), Richard Gere (Chicago), Dennis Quaid (The Rookie), Leonardo DiCaprio (Catch Me If You Can), Tom Hanks (The Road to Perdition), Derek Luke (Antwone Fisher). While Gere, Quaid and Hanks have a chance, expect one of the three young hunks to grab the fifth spot.

My Guesses: Day-Lewis, Nicholson, Caine, Cage and Brody.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

My Guesses: Susan Sarandon (Moonlight Mile), Meryl Streep (Adaptation), Julianne Moore (The Hours), Patricia Clarkson (Far From Heaven) and Catherine Zeta-Jones (Chicago).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

My Guesses: Ed Harris (The Hours), John C. Reilly (Chicago), Dennis Quaid (Far From Heaven), Chris Cooper (Adaptation) and Ray Liotta (Narc).

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

My Guesses: Chap Taylor and Michael Tolkin (Changing Lanes); Jay Cocks, Steven Zaillian and Kenneth Lonergan (Gangs of New York); Nia Vardalos (My Big Fat Greek Wedding); Todd Haynes (Far From Heaven); Pedro Almodóvar (Talk to Her).

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

My Guesses: Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor (About Schmidt); Charlie Kaufman (Adaptation); David Hare (The Hours); Bill Condon (Chicago); Peter Jackson, Frances Walsh, Philippa Boyens and Stephen Sinclair (LOTR: The Two Towers).

Nominees for all the above and the rest of the Oscar categories are announced the morning of February 11^th. It would be neat to think I’m going to have a day-after- birthday surprise by seeing all my guesses pan out, but knowing the Academy I severely doubt that will be the case. It wouldn’t startle me in the slightest to find I’m wrong on 90% of these, especially with the high glut of excellent-to-superior film from last year.

Still, I bet I’m right on over half of them, especially when it comes to The Hours and Chicago. I fully expect one of them to dominate the nominations, with The Hours probably emerging as the favorite going into the March ceremony. But, in reality, it is all wide open for once with every film having a chance at snagging the little gold man.

With most Oscar winners being obvious long before the big show, how cool is that?

Article Posted: 01.22.03

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