JUNE

Whale Rider (June 6, NY/LA) – This audience award winner at the Sundance Film Festival has been generating huge word of mouth since it premiered. Picked up by Newmarket, the small fledgling group that released Memento and My Big Fat Greek Wedding (and we all know the noise those two made), I’m expecting big things from Nick Caro’s latest. This could turn out to be one of the summer’s biggest gifts.

From Justin to Kelly (June 13) – Ever wanted to know what a cinematic train wreck looked like? This American Idol spin-off starring the two big winners from season one could be it. A must see just for the chance at seeing something so-bad-it’s-good on a level not witnessed since Battlefield Earth.

The Hulk (June 20) – If there is a potential sleeper blockbuster of the summer in the Spider-Man mold, this could be it. That is, if this 800-pound guerilla of comic books were known for dozing off. Seriously, though, the fact that Ang Lee is the one handling this adventure would be enough to get me through the door by itself. I’d follow the genius behind The Ice Storm, The Wedding Banquet, Sense and Sensibility and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon anywhere.

JULY

Seabiscuit (July 25) – This book-to-film adaptation from Pleasantville director Gary Ross (and based on fact, too) has a lot going for it, and not only his re-teaming with web-head Tobey Maguire. Featuring the great Jeff Bridges and (recent Oscar winner) Chris Cooper in prominent supporting roles, this is one summer film that might find its way ‘round the track to a prominent finish at the Academy Award ceremony next year.

AUGUST

Matchstick Men (Aug. 8) – Director Ridley Scott (Black Hawk Down) returns with something a bit lighter, and he’s taking Nicholas Cage (Adaptation), Sam Rockwell (Confessions of a Dangerous Mind) and Alison Lohman (White Oleander) with him. This caper quest has all the ingredients for success, and with Cage suddenly seeming to take an interest in actually acting again and with Rockwell and Lohman aching to prove themselves as more than one-performance wonders; this could be the sneaky surprise of the summer.

American Splendor (Aug. 15, NY/LA) – The grand jury prize winner at Sundance, this look at the life of “America Splendor” comic book author Harvey Pekar has been getting raves everywhere it’s been. A mix of the surreal and the factual and featuring the great and under appreciated Paul Giamatti (Confidence) in the title role, Splendor has all the makings of an underground cult phenomenon along the lines of Ghost World.

AT THE BOX OFFICE

Picking the box office winners and loser is like shopping for oranges; no matter how hard you try, some of your choices just turn out bitterly. Nevertheless, here are my best guesses as to what films will rule the summer.

The Matrix Revolutions - $300 million-plus

X-Men 2 - $220 million

The Hulk - $180 million

Finding Nemo - $175 million

Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines - $160 million

Legally Blonde 2: Red, White and Blonde - $140 million

Charlie’s Angels 2: Full Throttle - $135 million

Tomb Raider: The Cradle of Life - $130 million

Bad Boys II - $125 million

American Wedding - $120 million

Potential Sleepers

Matchstick Men

S.W.A.T.

Hollywood Homicide

Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl

2 Fast 2 Furious

Down With Love

How to Deal

When Harry Met Lloyd: Dumb and Dumberer

Rugrats Go Wild!

Whale Rider

Sinbad: Legend of the Seven Seas

Alex & Emma

Dead on Arrival

From Justin to Kelly and The League (formerly The League of Extraordinary Gentleman)

The former is just self explanatory – lord help us if it turns out to be half as successful as the television show that spawned it – while the latter has had so much misfortune and bad luck that the smell of failure just won’t go away. For 20th Century Fox, summer 2003 has the look of being a very, very long one for the studio. That decision to move the magnificent looking Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World to Oscar season is looking more and more careless, as the Russell Crowe-led flick might have been the studios only other chance for a summer hit this side of a Wolverine.

Tough Love/Gigli

Re-titled, re-worked and re-edited, this Ben Affleck and Jennifer Lopez effort may have been better off just being rethought. If any film has been generating more bad word of mouth and killer buzz than any other, this just may be it. If you wanted the 2003 version of Pluto Nash, this could be it.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Not many save a feeling of resignation. Studios are more and more happy to trot out all of these sequels and reruns as audiences keep lapping them up in droves. It’s tiresome but there is little I can really do about it. Wouldn’t it be wonderful, though, if summer 2003 went down as the one where theatergoers stayed away from all the Hollywood byproduct and suddenly started reveling in all the smart, sexy and original entertainment coming from the independents and abroad? I dare to dream.

Article Posted: 04.23.03

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